2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
A Polymarket event with 4 markets and $117.7K total volume, resolving Jul 31, 2026. Live odds for every outcome below.
- Markets
- 4
- Total volume
- $117.7K
- Liquidity
- $21.7K
- Resolves
- Jul 31, 2026
Markets in this event
| Market | Yes | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|
| Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? | 7% | $1.6K |
| Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | 88% | $1.4K |
| Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | 5% | $1.3K |
| Will July 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? | 0% | $231 |
About this event
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
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