Spreadiction

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

A Polymarket event with 8 markets and $487.5K total volume, resolving Dec 31, 2026. Live odds for every outcome below.

Markets
8
Total volume
$487.5K
Liquidity
$26.6K
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026

Markets in this event

MarketYes24h vol
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?57%$154
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?3%$79
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?29%$51
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?11%$15
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?2%$0
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?2%$0
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?1%$0
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?2%$0

About this event

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trade on Polymarket

Trading happens on Polymarket. Polymarket is geographically restricted — verify access from your jurisdiction before depositing.

Open event on Polymarket →