Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
A prediction market on Polymarket. Yes is trading at 5.3¢, implying a 5% probability. 24-hour volume is $64. Resolves Nov 3, 2026.
Simulate your payout
- 24-hour volume
- $64
- Total volume
- $161.2K
- Liquidity
- $77.6K
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026
- Event
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
- Hosted on
- Polymarket
- Resolution source
- Polymarket / UMA oracle
About this market
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Frequently asked questions
What is this prediction market about?
This is a Polymarket prediction market asking: "Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?". Traders buy "Yes" tokens if they think the event will occur, or "No" tokens if they think it will not. Each token's price (in cents on the dollar) represents the market's consensus probability of that outcome.
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices "Yes" at 5.3¢, which implies a 5% probability. "No" trades at 94.7¢. The probability updates in real time as traders buy and sell.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Nov 3, 2026. After resolution, the winning side's tokens redeem at $1 each (in USDC) and the losing side at $0.
How is the outcome decided?
Resolution follows Polymarket's standard process via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed outcome is submitted, and anyone may dispute it within a challenge window before settlement.
What does buying YES or NO actually mean?
"Yes" and "No" are outcome tokens on the Polygon blockchain. Each one pays out $1 in USDC if its outcome resolves true, otherwise $0. If you buy "Yes" at 5.3¢ and the outcome resolves "Yes", you receive $1 per token; if it resolves "No", your "Yes" tokens are worth nothing.
How much trading activity is there?
Over the last 24 hours, $64 has been traded on this market. Total volume since the market opened is $161.2K. Current order-book liquidity is $77.6K — the amount that can be filled at or near the mid-price without significant slippage.
Where is this market hosted?
On Polymarket, the largest prediction-market platform in the world. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC as collateral.
Is Polymarket available everywhere?
No. Polymarket is geographically restricted. Trading is blocked in some jurisdictions, including the United States. Polymarket detects your location and prevents deposits and trades where the service is unavailable. Always verify access from your country before depositing funds.
Can I see the live order book and top holders?
Yes. Spreadiction surfaces the live CLOB order book, top holders by USD value, recent whale trades and derived analytics for every active Polymarket market. Use the navigation: Markets, Whales, Signals, Alpha, Scanner.
Is anything on this page investment advice?
No. Spreadiction is an analytics tool. Nothing on this page is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Prediction markets carry substantial risk of loss. See the full disclaimer for details.
Trade this market
Trading happens on Polymarket. You will need a Polygon wallet with USDC. Polymarket is geographically restricted — verify access from your jurisdiction before depositing.
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