SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?
A prediction market on Polymarket. SpaceX is trading at 99.4¢, implying a 99% probability. 24-hour volume is $19. Resolves Jul 1, 2026.
- 24-hour volume
- $19
- Total volume
- $44.5K
- Liquidity
- $20.2K
- Resolves
- Jul 1, 2026
- Hosted on
- Polymarket
- Resolution source
- Polymarket / UMA oracle
About this market
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If SpaceX's valuation is equal to Tesla's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Frequently asked questions
What is this prediction market about?
This is a Polymarket prediction market asking: "SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?". Traders buy "SpaceX" tokens if they think the event will occur, or "Tesla" tokens if they think it will not. Each token's price (in cents on the dollar) represents the market's consensus probability of that outcome.
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices "SpaceX" at 99.4¢, which implies a 99% probability. "Tesla" trades at 0.7¢. The probability updates in real time as traders buy and sell.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jul 1, 2026. After resolution, the winning side's tokens redeem at $1 each (in USDC) and the losing side at $0.
How is the outcome decided?
Resolution follows Polymarket's standard process via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed outcome is submitted, and anyone may dispute it within a challenge window before settlement.
What does buying YES or NO actually mean?
"SpaceX" and "Tesla" are outcome tokens on the Polygon blockchain. Each one pays out $1 in USDC if its outcome resolves true, otherwise $0. If you buy "SpaceX" at 99.4¢ and the outcome resolves "SpaceX", you receive $1 per token; if it resolves "Tesla", your "SpaceX" tokens are worth nothing.
How much trading activity is there?
Over the last 24 hours, $19 has been traded on this market. Total volume since the market opened is $44.5K. Current order-book liquidity is $20.2K — the amount that can be filled at or near the mid-price without significant slippage.
Where is this market hosted?
On Polymarket, the largest prediction-market platform in the world. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC as collateral.
Is Polymarket available everywhere?
No. Polymarket is geographically restricted. Trading is blocked in some jurisdictions, including the United States. Polymarket detects your location and prevents deposits and trades where the service is unavailable. Always verify access from your country before depositing funds.
Can I see the live order book and top holders?
Yes. Spreadiction surfaces the live CLOB order book, top holders by USD value, recent whale trades and derived analytics for every active Polymarket market. Use the navigation: Markets, Whales, Signals, Alpha, Scanner.
Is anything on this page investment advice?
No. Spreadiction is an analytics tool. Nothing on this page is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Prediction markets carry substantial risk of loss. See the full disclaimer for details.
Trade this market
Trading happens on Polymarket. You will need a Polygon wallet with USDC. Polymarket is geographically restricted — verify access from your jurisdiction before depositing.
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