SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?
A prediction market on Polymarket. Up is trading at 20.0¢, implying a 20% probability. 24-hour volume is $65.1K. Resolves Jul 13, 2026.
Simulate your payout
- 24-hour volume
- $65.1K
- Total volume
- $65.5K
- Liquidity
- $33.7K
- Resolves
- Jul 13, 2026
- Event
- SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?
- Hosted on
- Polymarket
- Resolution source
- link
About this market
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on July 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on July 13, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Frequently asked questions
What is this prediction market about?
This is a Polymarket prediction market asking: "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13?". Traders buy "Up" tokens if they think the event will occur, or "Down" tokens if they think it will not. Each token's price (in cents on the dollar) represents the market's consensus probability of that outcome.
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices "Up" at 20.0¢, which implies a 20% probability. "Down" trades at 80.0¢. The probability updates in real time as traders buy and sell.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jul 13, 2026. After resolution, the winning side's tokens redeem at $1 each (in USDC) and the losing side at $0.
How is the outcome decided?
Resolution is determined by the source specified by the market (https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD). Polymarket uses UMA's optimistic oracle to finalize outcomes — a proposed result is submitted, and anyone may dispute it within a challenge window before settlement.
What does buying YES or NO actually mean?
"Up" and "Down" are outcome tokens on the Polygon blockchain. Each one pays out $1 in USDC if its outcome resolves true, otherwise $0. If you buy "Up" at 20.0¢ and the outcome resolves "Up", you receive $1 per token; if it resolves "Down", your "Up" tokens are worth nothing.
How much trading activity is there?
Over the last 24 hours, $65.1K has been traded on this market. Total volume since the market opened is $65.5K. Current order-book liquidity is $33.7K — the amount that can be filled at or near the mid-price without significant slippage.
Where is this market hosted?
On Polymarket, the largest prediction-market platform in the world. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC as collateral.
Is Polymarket available everywhere?
No. Polymarket is geographically restricted. Trading is blocked in some jurisdictions, including the United States. Polymarket detects your location and prevents deposits and trades where the service is unavailable. Always verify access from your country before depositing funds.
Can I see the live order book and top holders?
Yes. Spreadiction surfaces the live CLOB order book, top holders by USD value, recent whale trades and derived analytics for every active Polymarket market. Use the navigation: Markets, Whales, Signals, Alpha, Scanner.
Is anything on this page investment advice?
No. Spreadiction is an analytics tool. Nothing on this page is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Prediction markets carry substantial risk of loss. See the full disclaimer for details.
Trade this market
Trading happens on Polymarket. You will need a Polygon wallet with USDC. Polymarket is geographically restricted — verify access from your jurisdiction before depositing.
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