UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
A prediction market on Polymarket. Justin Gaethje is trading at 20.5¢, implying a 21% probability. 24-hour volume is $400.4K. Resolves Jun 15, 2026.
- 24-hour volume
- $400.4K
- Total volume
- $1.25M
- Liquidity
- $480.1K
- Resolves
- Jun 15, 2026
- Hosted on
- Polymarket
- Resolution source
- link
About this market
This market will resolve to "Justin Gaethje" if Justin Gaethje is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Ilia Topuria" if Ilia Topuria is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Frequently asked questions
What is this prediction market about?
This is a Polymarket prediction market asking: "UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)". Traders buy "Justin Gaethje" tokens if they think the event will occur, or "Ilia Topuria" tokens if they think it will not. Each token's price (in cents on the dollar) represents the market's consensus probability of that outcome.
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices "Justin Gaethje" at 20.5¢, which implies a 21% probability. "Ilia Topuria" trades at 79.5¢. The probability updates in real time as traders buy and sell.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 15, 2026. After resolution, the winning side's tokens redeem at $1 each (in USDC) and the losing side at $0.
How is the outcome decided?
Resolution is determined by the source specified by the market (https://www.ufc.com/events). Polymarket uses UMA's optimistic oracle to finalize outcomes — a proposed result is submitted, and anyone may dispute it within a challenge window before settlement.
What does buying YES or NO actually mean?
"Justin Gaethje" and "Ilia Topuria" are outcome tokens on the Polygon blockchain. Each one pays out $1 in USDC if its outcome resolves true, otherwise $0. If you buy "Justin Gaethje" at 20.5¢ and the outcome resolves "Justin Gaethje", you receive $1 per token; if it resolves "Ilia Topuria", your "Justin Gaethje" tokens are worth nothing.
How much trading activity is there?
Over the last 24 hours, $400.4K has been traded on this market. Total volume since the market opened is $1.25M. Current order-book liquidity is $480.1K — the amount that can be filled at or near the mid-price without significant slippage.
Where is this market hosted?
On Polymarket, the largest prediction-market platform in the world. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC as collateral.
Is Polymarket available everywhere?
No. Polymarket is geographically restricted. Trading is blocked in some jurisdictions, including the United States. Polymarket detects your location and prevents deposits and trades where the service is unavailable. Always verify access from your country before depositing funds.
Can I see the live order book and top holders?
Yes. SpreaDiction surfaces the live CLOB order book, top holders by USD value, recent whale trades and derived analytics for every active Polymarket market. Use the navigation: Markets, Whales, Signals, Alpha, Scanner.
Is anything on this page investment advice?
No. SpreaDiction is an analytics tool. Nothing on this page is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Prediction markets carry substantial risk of loss. See the full disclaimer for details.
Trade this market
Trading happens on Polymarket. You will need a Polygon wallet with USDC. Polymarket is geographically restricted — verify access from your jurisdiction before depositing.
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