Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
A prediction market on Polymarket. Yes is trading at 45.5¢, implying a 46% probability. 24-hour volume is $199.0K. Resolves Jan 3, 2027.
Simulate your payout
- 24-hour volume
- $199.0K
- Total volume
- $669.7K
- Liquidity
- $109.9K
- Resolves
- Jan 3, 2027
- Event
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
- Hosted on
- Polymarket
- Resolution source
- Polymarket / UMA oracle
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Frequently asked questions
What is this prediction market about?
This is a Polymarket prediction market asking: "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?". Traders buy "Yes" tokens if they think the event will occur, or "No" tokens if they think it will not. Each token's price (in cents on the dollar) represents the market's consensus probability of that outcome.
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices "Yes" at 45.5¢, which implies a 46% probability. "No" trades at 54.5¢. The probability updates in real time as traders buy and sell.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jan 3, 2027. After resolution, the winning side's tokens redeem at $1 each (in USDC) and the losing side at $0.
How is the outcome decided?
Resolution follows Polymarket's standard process via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed outcome is submitted, and anyone may dispute it within a challenge window before settlement.
What does buying YES or NO actually mean?
"Yes" and "No" are outcome tokens on the Polygon blockchain. Each one pays out $1 in USDC if its outcome resolves true, otherwise $0. If you buy "Yes" at 45.5¢ and the outcome resolves "Yes", you receive $1 per token; if it resolves "No", your "Yes" tokens are worth nothing.
How much trading activity is there?
Over the last 24 hours, $199.0K has been traded on this market. Total volume since the market opened is $669.7K. Current order-book liquidity is $109.9K — the amount that can be filled at or near the mid-price without significant slippage.
Where is this market hosted?
On Polymarket, the largest prediction-market platform in the world. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC as collateral.
Is Polymarket available everywhere?
No. Polymarket is geographically restricted. Trading is blocked in some jurisdictions, including the United States. Polymarket detects your location and prevents deposits and trades where the service is unavailable. Always verify access from your country before depositing funds.
Can I see the live order book and top holders?
Yes. Spreadiction surfaces the live CLOB order book, top holders by USD value, recent whale trades and derived analytics for every active Polymarket market. Use the navigation: Markets, Whales, Signals, Alpha, Scanner.
Is anything on this page investment advice?
No. Spreadiction is an analytics tool. Nothing on this page is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Prediction markets carry substantial risk of loss. See the full disclaimer for details.
Trade this market
Trading happens on Polymarket. You will need a Polygon wallet with USDC. Polymarket is geographically restricted — verify access from your jurisdiction before depositing.
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