Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
A prediction market on Polymarket. Yes is trading at 66.0¢, implying a 66% probability. 24-hour volume is $1. Resolves Dec 31, 2026.
Simulate your payout
- 24-hour volume
- $1
- Total volume
- $180.4K
- Liquidity
- $19.9K
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- Event
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
- Hosted on
- Polymarket
- Resolution source
- Polymarket / UMA oracle
About this market
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.
Frequently asked questions
What is this prediction market about?
This is a Polymarket prediction market asking: "Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?". Traders buy "Yes" tokens if they think the event will occur, or "No" tokens if they think it will not. Each token's price (in cents on the dollar) represents the market's consensus probability of that outcome.
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices "Yes" at 66.0¢, which implies a 66% probability. "No" trades at 34.0¢. The probability updates in real time as traders buy and sell.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Dec 31, 2026. After resolution, the winning side's tokens redeem at $1 each (in USDC) and the losing side at $0.
How is the outcome decided?
Resolution follows Polymarket's standard process via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed outcome is submitted, and anyone may dispute it within a challenge window before settlement.
What does buying YES or NO actually mean?
"Yes" and "No" are outcome tokens on the Polygon blockchain. Each one pays out $1 in USDC if its outcome resolves true, otherwise $0. If you buy "Yes" at 66.0¢ and the outcome resolves "Yes", you receive $1 per token; if it resolves "No", your "Yes" tokens are worth nothing.
How much trading activity is there?
Over the last 24 hours, $1 has been traded on this market. Total volume since the market opened is $180.4K. Current order-book liquidity is $19.9K — the amount that can be filled at or near the mid-price without significant slippage.
Where is this market hosted?
On Polymarket, the largest prediction-market platform in the world. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC as collateral.
Is Polymarket available everywhere?
No. Polymarket is geographically restricted. Trading is blocked in some jurisdictions, including the United States. Polymarket detects your location and prevents deposits and trades where the service is unavailable. Always verify access from your country before depositing funds.
Can I see the live order book and top holders?
Yes. Spreadiction surfaces the live CLOB order book, top holders by USD value, recent whale trades and derived analytics for every active Polymarket market. Use the navigation: Markets, Whales, Signals, Alpha, Scanner.
Is anything on this page investment advice?
No. Spreadiction is an analytics tool. Nothing on this page is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Prediction markets carry substantial risk of loss. See the full disclaimer for details.
Trade this market
Trading happens on Polymarket. You will need a Polygon wallet with USDC. Polymarket is geographically restricted — verify access from your jurisdiction before depositing.
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