Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
A prediction market on Polymarket. Yes is trading at 0.1¢, implying a 0% probability. 24-hour volume is $1.69M. Resolves Jun 18, 2026.
- 24-hour volume
- $1.69M
- Total volume
- $2.90M
- Liquidity
- $1.51M
- Resolves
- Jun 18, 2026
- Hosted on
- Polymarket
- Resolution source
- Polymarket / UMA oracle
About this market
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What is this prediction market about?
This is a Polymarket prediction market asking: "Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? ". Traders buy "Yes" tokens if they think the event will occur, or "No" tokens if they think it will not. Each token's price (in cents on the dollar) represents the market's consensus probability of that outcome.
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices "Yes" at 0.1¢, which implies a 0% probability. "No" trades at 100.0¢. The probability updates in real time as traders buy and sell.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 18, 2026. After resolution, the winning side's tokens redeem at $1 each (in USDC) and the losing side at $0.
How is the outcome decided?
Resolution follows Polymarket's standard process via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed outcome is submitted, and anyone may dispute it within a challenge window before settlement.
What does buying YES or NO actually mean?
"Yes" and "No" are outcome tokens on the Polygon blockchain. Each one pays out $1 in USDC if its outcome resolves true, otherwise $0. If you buy "Yes" at 0.1¢ and the outcome resolves "Yes", you receive $1 per token; if it resolves "No", your "Yes" tokens are worth nothing.
How much trading activity is there?
Over the last 24 hours, $1.69M has been traded on this market. Total volume since the market opened is $2.90M. Current order-book liquidity is $1.51M — the amount that can be filled at or near the mid-price without significant slippage.
Where is this market hosted?
On Polymarket, the largest prediction-market platform in the world. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC as collateral.
Is Polymarket available everywhere?
No. Polymarket is geographically restricted. Trading is blocked in some jurisdictions, including the United States. Polymarket detects your location and prevents deposits and trades where the service is unavailable. Always verify access from your country before depositing funds.
Can I see the live order book and top holders?
Yes. SpreaDiction surfaces the live CLOB order book, top holders by USD value, recent whale trades and derived analytics for every active Polymarket market. Use the navigation: Markets, Whales, Signals, Alpha, Scanner.
Is anything on this page investment advice?
No. SpreaDiction is an analytics tool. Nothing on this page is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Prediction markets carry substantial risk of loss. See the full disclaimer for details.
Trade this market
Trading happens on Polymarket. You will need a Polygon wallet with USDC. Polymarket is geographically restricted — verify access from your jurisdiction before depositing.
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