Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
A prediction market on Polymarket. Yes is trading at 100.0¢, implying a 100% probability. 24-hour volume is $1.85M. Resolves Jun 30, 2026.
- 24-hour volume
- $1.85M
- Total volume
- $2.96M
- Liquidity
- $3.68M
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026
- Hosted on
- Polymarket
- Resolution source
- Polymarket / UMA oracle
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran by May June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran refers to any official U.S. or U.S. military initiative or commitment to materially reduce the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed or deployed in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, or countries neighboring or proximate to Iran. A qualifying initiative must be publicly identified as a deliberate reduction in US military presence near Iran. Routine troop movements, relocations, or regular variations in the deployment or stationing of US military personnel, which are not part of a qualifying initiative or commitment, will not count. The United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran. - The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Frequently asked questions
What is this prediction market about?
This is a Polymarket prediction market asking: "Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?". Traders buy "Yes" tokens if they think the event will occur, or "No" tokens if they think it will not. Each token's price (in cents on the dollar) represents the market's consensus probability of that outcome.
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices "Yes" at 100.0¢, which implies a 100% probability. "No" trades at 0.1¢. The probability updates in real time as traders buy and sell.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 30, 2026. After resolution, the winning side's tokens redeem at $1 each (in USDC) and the losing side at $0.
How is the outcome decided?
Resolution follows Polymarket's standard process via UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposed outcome is submitted, and anyone may dispute it within a challenge window before settlement.
What does buying YES or NO actually mean?
"Yes" and "No" are outcome tokens on the Polygon blockchain. Each one pays out $1 in USDC if its outcome resolves true, otherwise $0. If you buy "Yes" at 100.0¢ and the outcome resolves "Yes", you receive $1 per token; if it resolves "No", your "Yes" tokens are worth nothing.
How much trading activity is there?
Over the last 24 hours, $1.85M has been traded on this market. Total volume since the market opened is $2.96M. Current order-book liquidity is $3.68M — the amount that can be filled at or near the mid-price without significant slippage.
Where is this market hosted?
On Polymarket, the largest prediction-market platform in the world. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC as collateral.
Is Polymarket available everywhere?
No. Polymarket is geographically restricted. Trading is blocked in some jurisdictions, including the United States. Polymarket detects your location and prevents deposits and trades where the service is unavailable. Always verify access from your country before depositing funds.
Can I see the live order book and top holders?
Yes. SpreaDiction surfaces the live CLOB order book, top holders by USD value, recent whale trades and derived analytics for every active Polymarket market. Use the navigation: Markets, Whales, Signals, Alpha, Scanner.
Is anything on this page investment advice?
No. SpreaDiction is an analytics tool. Nothing on this page is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Prediction markets carry substantial risk of loss. See the full disclaimer for details.
Trade this market
Trading happens on Polymarket. You will need a Polygon wallet with USDC. Polymarket is geographically restricted — verify access from your jurisdiction before depositing.
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