probability
Polymarket trader 0x74f1…16a8 — 100 open positions worth $109.6K, open P&L -$3.5K, +$19.0K over the last 7 days, $29.4K traded volume. Largest position: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? ($86.7K).
Open positions
Recent trades
| Market | Side | Outcome | Size | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targu Mures: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Irina Fetecau | BUY | Irina Fetecau | $2 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | No | $134 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election? | BUY | No | $367 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election? | BUY | No | $199 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election? | BUY | No | $4.4K | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin? | BUY | Yes | $2 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will John Stevens win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | No | $896 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will William Clouston win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | No | $24 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Andrew Pemberton win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | No | $44 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Tony Mack win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | No | $68 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Natasha Osben win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | No | $37 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Giles Watling win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | No | $37 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Targu Mures: Alice Rame vs Julie Struplova AND Targu Mures: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Irina Fetecau | BUY | $10 | Jul 27, 2026 | |
| Targu Mures: Alice Rame vs Julie Struplova AND Targu Mures: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Irina Fetecau | BUY | $11 | Jul 27, 2026 | |
| Targu Mures: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Irina Fetecau AND Targu Mures: Caijsa Hennemann vs Mia Pohankova | BUY | $10 | Jul 27, 2026 | |
| Targu Mures: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Irina Fetecau AND Targu Mures: Caijsa Hennemann vs Mia Pohankova | BUY | $11 | Jul 27, 2026 | |
| Targu Mures: Elena Malygina vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea AND Targu Mures: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Irina Fetecau | BUY | $10 | Jul 27, 2026 | |
| Targu Mures: Elena Malygina vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea AND Targu Mures: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Irina Fetecau | BUY | $11 | Jul 27, 2026 | |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado AND Targu Mures: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Irina Fetecau | BUY | $11 | Jul 27, 2026 | |
| San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado AND Targu Mures: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Irina Fetecau | BUY | $10 | Jul 27, 2026 |
Most-active markets
Frequently asked questions
Who is the Polymarket trader probability?
probability (0x74f1…16a8) is a Polymarket trader (wallet 0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8). This page tracks their on-chain activity: 100 open positions currently worth $109.6K, plus their most recent large trades. All figures come from Polymarket's public data API and update automatically.
What does open P&L mean here?
Open P&L is the unrealised profit or loss on the trader's currently open positions — the difference between what they paid and the current market value. It excludes positions they have already closed or redeemed. This trader's open P&L is -$3.5K.
How often is this profile updated?
Spreadiction reads this trader's positions and trades live from Polymarket's public API and caches them briefly, so the page reflects on-chain activity within a couple of minutes. Reload to refresh.
Is this trading advice?
No. Copying another trader carries substantial risk and past performance does not predict future results. Nothing here is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Spreadiction is an independent analytics tool and is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Go deeper
Explore this wallet interactively on Spreadiction — realized vs unrealized P&L, win rate, exposure and filterable trade history — or view the original profile on Polymarket.
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